Finland 2010 - One match to go!

Edit: FT 2-0. JJK stays in the Veikkausliiga for 2010.

It will be JJK - Viikingit on Saturday CET 13.00. -0,5 @ 1.98 and total market sees it as 2.5 goals game.

A tough one to crack as the euro cup rules makes it very challenging, but a few words.

The first encounter looked strongly like a goalless draw, but a silly red card for JJK striker at 52nd minute messed up Viikingit´s game, and some 10 minutes later JJK scored from one of the very chances of the game. Only after they were one goal down did Viikingit put any pressure, and the 1-1 equalizer from a corner was rather justified one.

All in all, JJK were a bit better and a bit stronger, but in my opinion not good enough to deserve a bet.

We all probably know how bad JJK´s home record is - 1 win this season and even that one was not on their regular home pitch - and in fact there are several JJK players in the team who have never won at Harju, JJK´s home stadium! It is a funny record which does not necessarily mean that they are not going to win tomorrow either, and of course Viikingit are by quality a bottom Veikkausliiga team at best.

The problem for Viikingit is that they did not look like they were going to score at home either, and their in-form striker Obi Metzger injured and got substituted in the first leg and is doubtful on Saturday. JJK´s Lahtinen is suspended, but his absence is less critical.

0-0 would do for JJK, but they did concede a lot of goal in the late season in the league even with a top gk Janne Korhonen between the posts, and with that in mind they are not too certain to keep a clean sheet tomorrow either. Relying on that would be a bit foolish.

1-1 in the first leg means that whoever scores first tomorrow is not guaranteed of anything. Viikingit need that goal in any case, but if JJK score first their task does not really change much.

Odds are -0,5 @ 1.98 for JJK which are correct enough for me. Under 2.5 would make sense in a lot of ways,

there were very few chances in the first leg, and even if the first goal would come early then an equalizer might really finish the game off. No more risks, and all eyes set to the extra time and possible penalties.

+0,5 can also be reasoned in many ways, there is no huge gap in quality, and both 0-0 and 1-1 might hold for a long time, and in the case of 0-0 still late in the game it can easily be covered with an over 0.5 or 0.75 as Viikingit would definitely start taking big risks for the last 20-30 minutes.

Viikingit coach Toni Korkeakunnas has been reported/ rumoured to transfer to MyPa for next year, which is probably not all good news for Viikingit at this point. He has not confirmed it himself.

Too bad there is absolutely no media coverage of this match, and I can not really suggest any of the choices whole-heartedly.

If I had to bet I really am not sure I would do, perhaps toss a coin? In the end I would go for under, but in real life this is a no bet.