Finland Cup finalists found

HJK - KuPS will be played in September. HJK did beat Lahti 3-0 and KuPS earned a 0-3 away win at Mariehamn. HJK´s home match went pretty according to the plan, it was not glourious but rather a routine win over Lahti who did what they could. The notable thing bettingwise was the market behaviour in live betting as it took only some 10 minutes to drop the hc by two steps, and by HT 0-0 there was a tasty -0,75 available at 0-0.

The matches were previewed like this in the Newsletter;

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Well, for some clubs these are bigger than for others, but if the League Champion is also the Cup winner then the losing club in the final is still earning a place in the Europe League, and as HJK are a big favourite to do so it means that both MIFK and KuPS are only one win away from it.


HJK - Lahti
I wish I could are say that the HJK odds are still good value after been dropped two handicaps but I can not. Now they are short to say the least, but the set-up to the match remains the same, HJK are huge favourites to win, but will they beat the handicap as well? In the previous home matches HJK have beaten then pre-game hc fully only in the 4-1 win over KuPS. Against Inter it started at -0,75 and according the performance the 1-0 win is not a fair result as HJK dominated from the start, and -1.25 vs Jaro was also half lost as HJK found the net only once. Can not blame HJK at home for anything else than for wasting goal chances as there have been enough opportunities to score 4 in each match, the strikers have just missed the target by a few cents several times and/or goalkeepers have made spectacular saves. As discussed HJK away are completely another matter.

Lahti this season are playing at Ykkönen, qualitywise with their best possible line-up they are in the same basket with RoPS and Haka, but as they still do miss several players due injury it is extremely difficult to see them capable of causing any shock today. At Ykkönen they have had problems in creating goal chances and in finishing them, last round they came back from Oulu with a deserved 2-0 loss.

There is big rivarly between the teams, or more like between the fans. Several players and even manager Muurinen have come to HJK from Lahti, and it has never been taken lightly at Lahti, but it should have no impact on the pitch and among the players the atmosphere should remain friendly as always.

What can I say? Nothing would make me take Lahti in this match, but it would require some magic to make these current home odds look like value tonight. HJK home win likely, even by two goals, but at -1.75 it is not good enough. Lahti unlikely to score which also makes the total markets unattractive.  I will send a msg to PRO list if there is a good chance in LIVE, but it would require both odds rising and no HJK goals and a promise of goals in the near future and there is no guarantee that the right moment will ever come. My guess - a popular one - is 2,3 - 0.


MIFK-KuPS
When they met in Kuopio some time ago KuPS emerged as 2-1 winners, but MIFK were the better team and can feel robbed. MIFK have rotated quite a lot of players, but all in all their performances have been good in almost all of the matches with any lineups. It is starting to look like that of the 4 players from TamU at least defenders Värttö and Kojola would belong to the ideal starting line-up and striker Kangaskolkka is also a regular. Today all 4 TamU - players are in my understanding cup-tied because they played with TamU in April in the Cup, and as also regular center-back De Abreu is injured MIFK need to build up their line-up once more from the scratch.

KuPS have not been performing on a reliable level and keeping up the concentration for the full 90 minutes has been too much to ask. KuPS have fielded their key players Ilo and Venäläinen only for some 45 minutes in several games but no injuries has been mentioned, so maybe it is just a precaution or rotation. Defender Hoivala is doubtful, but he has also been one of the weakest links lately, mf Ollo is doubtful.

As stakes are high in this and the teams should know each other quite well by now a cautious approach is to be expected and a low-scoring draw would not surprise me the slightest. MIFK did make life difficult for KuPS in Kuopio by challenging KuPS defenders and keeping up the pressure, the question is if they are brave enough to do the same and try to win the control of the ball and the midfield, but risk giving space to KuPS key striker Dickson?

MIFK are the favourites here, but the odds are correct enough not to raise interest. With the line-ups I expect and the run of the play I give them now roughly 43 % and the limit for value at -0,25 would be at 1.90, but it only takes one or two changes in line-ups to make that tiny value go away, so this match is either best left alone or a small-staked cs for 1-1 is advised.