18.5.2011

Kakkonen C complimentary analysis by the Northern Expert

Quick guide:

Kiisto - VIFK U3.0 64% 2,03 4/10 Sbobet
Kiisto - VIFK -0,25 2 49% 2,13 1/10 Sbobet
GBK - FC YPA O3.0 59% 1,82 4/10 Sbobet
GBK - FC YPA +0,25 2 57% 1,83 1,5/10 Sbobet
HauPa - PK-37 -0,25 56% 1,98 5/10 Sbobet
JBK - SJK O3.0 69% 1,78 5/10 Sbobet
JBK - SJK -1,25 2 71% 1,88 10/10


Kiisto - VIFK 33 24 43
o/u 2.5: 50 50


To say that both teams did not have their best outings last week would be an great understatement, and it goes to show unpredictable this league can sometimes be as these defensive teams let in about a half a dozen goals each. VIFK has the slight edge but the bookies know it too so probably no side bets, this should be a low-scoring based on what we've seen from these two during the last few years, but both teams do have new coaches so some change might come from that.

SC Riverball - Warkaus JK 39 22 39
o/u 2.5: 63 37


Two unknown teams so I'm skipping this. +0,5 for Riverball obviously looks very good if you go by preseason rankings but their form has been horrid so far.

GBK - FC YPA 39 21 40
o/u 2.5: 68 32


GBK put on their first good performance this season by beating Kiisto convincingly. YPA won also, but both of their goals came from goalkeeping blunders so that makes it three games where their top trio of Pakola-Pejic-Mahlakaarto has been completely silent. YPA is at least on the paper a lot better than GBK, but based on their performances so far it would be hard to justify them being big favorites. Bookies do have put GBK as favorites so a very small speculative bet for YPA might be in order. This does have a potential to be a high-scoring affair but as said, YPA hasn't scored as much as they usually do and GBK might still miss their big gun Ebongue.

ViPa - FC Vaajakoski 42 22 36
o/u 2.5: 64 36


Vaajakoski is a mess right now and now that their most important player Karlstedt is out their goalscoring woes are probably not going to be sorted out. They do however get couple of important players including midfield maestro Leppänen back. Class difference should be heavily in favor of the visitors but as ViPa hasn't looked as bad as they were predicted I'm not going to touch any side bets. Under 3.0 is slightly interesting as it's hard to see where FCV goals are going to come from.

HauPa - PK-37 28 23 49
o/u 2.5: 55 45


HauPa has continued to make everyone(including me) look silly by continuing to play very effectively, though we have not yet seen how they'll react if they go a goal down. PK-37 is a bit similar to HauPa in that they don't have any star players other than Rönkkö and they're also not known to play the most attractive football. PK-37's first three games have shown that the last year's fourth place doesn't seem to be fluke as they beat GBK and FCV deservedly and were quite unlucky to have nothing to show from their YPA match.
At the moment I'm leaning towards PK-37 with the very low line of -0,25. HauPa's defense has been very very good so I also put a very small bet on the under.

FC Santa Claus - TP-47 46 22 32
o/u 2.5: 63 37


The current odds are not that interesting either way. Santa Claus has recovered extremely well from their opening defeat, TP-47 also has two wins in a row but against lesser opponents and their performances weren't as good as compared to Santa. However TP-47's squad doesn't pale in comparison as they do have many former Ykkönen players and their team doesn't look any worse than what they had last year when they finished second. No team news for TP-47, Santa Claus preview says that they have players out and after some digging it seems most of them are from their defense. Under 3.0 might have some idea as TP-47's matches rarely have over three goals.

JBK - SJK 7 11 82
o/u 2.5: 75 25


SJK misses their most effective player so far in Sipilä but obviously they have so much quality in their squad that no drop-off should be expected. Like any other game SJK will play this year the class difference is huge, and the -1,25 offered is so generous that I don't have any problem putting 10/10 to it.

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