Veikkausliiga
Yesterday KuPS did themselves proud and made me looking foolish by backing a home team who never looked like they were going to win, never mind 2 goals or more. HJK line-up was ok, but mentally they were all absent. Superior performance by KuPS, and especially the star man Dickson Nwakaeme was on fire.
MIFK 0 @ 2.09 – Inter Turku 0 @ 1.83
MIFK are still without a home win in the league, which is pure madness. They were better side away at KuPS but came home only a point in the bag. Inter have been unreliable all season, but the league is still so even that a couple of win would bring almost all teams back to fight for at least european spots. Inter will start their EL qualification from the next round and they will face Belgian side Genk, last season they met Moldovan side Sheriff and gained nothing but experience. I have taken MIFK several times this season, and several times they have also led the matches comfortably and then let the oppositing team score a couple of goals, and personally I am not sure what to think of them, but they are not a bad side if they could get their heads up. Inter have several injuries again, and if I had not personally lost so many times with MIFK I would perhaps take them again, this time no bet for me, of course unless the odds take another unexpected rise.
In June MIFK won Inter 2-1 at home in the Cup.
Inter injured: Sanevuori, Osinachi, Grot, Nikkari, Furuholm and Gustafsson. Two players with Sinimustat but they are not going to make a big difference over there tonight, Monsalve and Felix Åkerlund.
MyPa + 0,5 @ 1.70 – Honka -0,5 @ 2.28
HJK´s loss last night might change the Honka approach as they could narrow down the lead in league to 4 points, but the priority for both teams here is Europa league. MyPa will progress very likely after the 3-0 home win against Andorran side, but Honka must be more concentrated in the away game at Wales which they are fully capable of winning, the home result 1-1 left a lot to wish for.
Both teams might be experimenting a lot, with the info at hand no bet. Honka have at least Simpanen, Hakanpää and Haarala injured.
Honka are the better team of these and usually have the edge, but if they keep on the chosen track they played vs. Bangor City they are winning no one and being ineffective has been their main problem this season also in other matches.
Edit: Both teams have best possible line-ups.
TPS -0,75 @ 2.00 – Haka 0,75 @ 1.92
There are unconfirmed rumours that Haka have already started selling their players, and if this is the case they are not likely to play for Haka anymore. The talk is about key men Hynynen and Innanen who are said to head to KuPS and JJK, and there might and will be more. TPS will rotate, but as they have not yet found a good permanent it could also be a good thing, and Haka is unthinkable at any odds. Looks like Innanen is still available.
Ykkönen
Hämeenlinna +0,25 @ 2.17 – PK35 -0,25 @ 1.77
Home side are a bad in bad form and yet to win a match at home, but even with their missing players Lehtimäki and Mäkelä they have chance for a good fight, and at that price I am not taking PK35 either. Lahti help unlikely for the hosts as Lahti have big injury problems of their own. The odds for PK35 are not specially good at the moment, and pretty much correctly set odds, with a an estimate of 50 % that would be good value, but I am not sure that PK are quite that good, they show very poor performances every now and then when least expected and they have been a bit shy on their travels and away from their own artificial turf. Hämeenlinna home pitch was at least in the early season in a dangerous condition.
KPV -0,25 @ 2.14 – PoPa +0,25 @ 1.79
KPV have a lot of doubtful players and they have been forced to bring along some youngsters lately. There have been some 8 players from the home side at the physio´s treatment but at least some of them will be perhaps available to play, PoPa have no injury worries. PoPa are in good form and firing a few brazilians seem to have helped them perform. KPV have lost once at home – 1-2 vs Espoo - , and in addition to poor MP and JIPPO wins PoPa have won only KooTeePee on their travels. Tough to say, but if there are a lot of missing players from this list Jukka Hakala, Tom Melarti, Niko Kalliokoski, Aki Lyyski, Tommi Halonen, Tarmo Koivuranta, Aki Sipilä, Tuomo Paavolainen to be seen at the website nearer the kick-off then PoPa is definitely value.
MP +0,25 @ 2.01 – OPS -0,25 @ 1.91
At first glance the odds for OPS look tempting; MP have lost their latest 8 including the one after the manager chance 4-0 away at TPV. There are two new brazilian signings for MP available in this match, but I do not see any light for MP at the moment, and as OPS are in good form lately despite meeting the top teams the away win must be taken at -0,25 @ 1.91
I was trying to think back when there has last time been a good signing in the middle of the season and came out with nothing.
Viikingit 0 @ 2.17 – RoPS 0 @ 1.77
A top match! Viikingit were not any better than Espoo in the midweek match, but they do not have the habit of losing at home and the latest home loss was vs. KPV on May 2nd. RoPS have the habit of losing nowhere and the handicap is probably correctly set. RoPS have reportedly earned every point they have, and by winning this they could basically declare themselves as promoted already, at the moment the lead is 9 points. I feel there is a bigger chance than usually for a draw as it would probably suit the visitors nicely. RoPS have scored 37 goals in 12 matches vs 18 by Viikingit, and as their defence seems to be well-organized as well they must be favourites. Viikingit did very well against Klubi04 a few rounds ago, but Espoo showed Viikingit to be just a typical Ykkönen side who have not enough quality for the danger area. To be honest I am tempted to go for RoPS, and with an estimate of 40 % it is almost value, but are they worth 38 or 42 % or more? RoPS have stayed overnight en route – like KuPS yesterday – and have no bus legs. A thunder storm is also very likely to burst out, but nevertheless this is my choice of live action tonight.
Edit: RoPS 0 @ 1.94 looked decent value! Another strange market movement.
Edit: RoPS 0 @ 1.94 looked decent value! Another strange market movement.
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