FT 1-2. The better team won deservedly. HJK line-up was pretty much the best available, but mentally they were not there and KuPS looked far more comfortable in the match from the start. Dickson Nwakaeme showed that he deserves a chance in a good professional team, and it must be just a matter a days when his contract gets published.
HJK – KuPS
As I write there is no certainty of HJK line-up, but there are some changes for sure. The player material is however large enough that it does not necessarily mean that that starting 11 is any weaker than usual, but of course key players like Medo and Rafinha would be of big importance. Without Medo (suspended for 2 matches) HJK won both matches, but with a poorer performance than usual.
KuPS are without two important players mf Ollo and striker Venäläinen. The ever-present question regarding KuPS is Dickson, and he has returned from Nigeria and is probably taking some part in tonight´s match, his eyes are set to a future transfer.
HJK have been unstoppable in the league, and the stats of the latest 10 home games would provide info why not back KuPS here - 3-3-3-3-3-3-3-1-3-1 – but also in most matches HJK have been strongly on the driver´seat, and all the points are fully deserved. In fact also one of the draws – Haka of course – is morally a win as Haka were completely destroyed on the pitch but somehow hung on to a draw. Only FC Lahti have given a good match at Finnair Stadium so far.
The Champions League ql match on Wednesday is however the priority. Last season HJK faced another Lithuanian team in the first round, won the first leg away, took the lead in the home leg early on, and managed to lose very embarrassingly then and became the laughing stock of everyone. They had made the mistake of looking too much ahead, and started booking tickets to London for the following round´s fixture vs. Fulham. It is obvious that they are not going to make the same mistake again, and this time the there is no Fulham awaiting either, it will be either Partizan or Puynik. The good news from the Lithuanian trip is that Ekranas are a team that should be beaten with a normal performance.
KuPS really deserved nothing out of their last match vs. MIFK on Monday, and it was only fair that they did miss the 90th minute penalty.
KuPS have reasonably good stats from their away games, but then again, they have faced Jaro, Haka, MyPa, JJK, Oulu, and for example the latest away win 0-1 at Jaro was against the run of the play. After they have met also the top teams away the stats are not going to look that rosy.
What to do then? Backing a big favourite is a bit boring and unimaginative option and the CL – match ahead is a bit of a questionmark, but looking at the pure class and home advantage HJK are likely to win, and I take HJK-1 @ 1.90 here. Last week´s home performance vs TamU in the 3-1 home win was the best so far this season.
Home odds have been rising all day, and obviously the market are expecting either too much from KuPS or some extremely heavy rotation here, which is not likely.
Line-ups:
HJK: Wallen, Medo, Fowler, Rafinha, Kärkkäinen, Westö, Pelvas, Bah, Ojala, Sumusalo, Zeneli
KuPS: Vilmunen, Hoiopainen, Udah, Taipale, Balogh, Williams, Oravainen, Nykänen, Ilo, Hoivala, Dickson
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