Jaro tonight

Edit: FT 2-0.

FF Jaro -0,5 @ 1.91 - FC Lahti 0,5 @ 2.01 (morning price) – > gone up a bit but will fall soon

I had kept some faith for FC Lahti until last week as they had been one of the most unluckiest team of the league regarding missed goals and receiving injuries, but now also their over all performances have deteriorated and they have been hit by another injury crisis.

Today FC Lahti will miss 8 players, and getting defender Tatu Mäkelä from FC Hämeenlinna on loan for this match increases the amount of players available to 13 + 2 goalies,1^st choice gk has been unreliable as well.

Haara, Moilanen, Huuhka, Vanninen, Litmanen, Eerola, Köse and Fofana will miss the match at Pietarsaari today and the starting -11 of Lahti is streched to the limit.

I know I do not fully share the optimism at Jaro camp though I have been delighted by their style and strength. They have been better than expected also without the key man Eremenko Jr, but when he is on the pitch and on the right mood he is by far the best player in league, and his presence and skill are enough to create chances to win a game.

Last week´s winning goal away at Oulu was scored by Sebastian Mannström who officially would miss that match due injury, and for tonight there are injuries for Jani Bäckman, Jani Sarajärvi and Petter Meyer, Thomas Kula is suspended.

It is not a sure home win however. The league stats have been bizarre this season, and FC Lahti have not yet lost on their travels. Jaro have lost twice in a row against KuPS and JJK who are basically not remarkably any better teams than FC Lahti is at their best, and Jaro´s latest win is according to the reports a fluke, they had only a couple of chances and robbed an undeserved win from AC Oulu.

Jaro themselves have only won once at home, and even that was the 3-2 derby win over VPS, so this is another pair who know nothing about home advantage. Jaro have failed several times when a lot has been expected from them, and I still see their goalie as worst of the league and prone to big mistakes.

Lahti have conceded a lot of goals lately, without Litmanen they have been unimaginative, there are practically no substitutes or alternatives available from the bench and even the trip is a bit of of handicap under this continuous heat, but if the Jaro odds keep on dropping towards kick-off it is just the team news that are talking, they make Jaro a bigger favourite than expected but not a sure winner.

The first encounter was played in Lahti while it was snowing, this time around at least the weather has changed.

Odds are likely to move a lot today, not much action going on in the betting market and this match will be studied and the injury situation will be published. Jaro is not probably available later today with value odds.

FC Lahti squad available for tonight; not much to choose from

Gk
Tuomi/Leino

Defenders :

Värttö – Miranda – McVea – Heikari-Mäkelä

Midfielders:
Shala-Korte-Länsitalo-Heini-Törmänen

Strikers:
Kemppinen-Rafael-Sihvola

Jaro – Lahti (56-27-17)

Jaro – 0,5 @ 1.79

Jaro -0,75 @ 2.03

Lahti 0,5 @ 2.27

Lahti 0,75 @ 1.98

I took Jaro -0.75 @ 2.17 earlier as I was sure it would drop sooner or later, but the market have reacted to the news so far the other way round it went as high as 2.29, there is someone again betting a strange team.

***

Tomorrow one match in the league, HJK – KuPS but more about it tomorrow along with other matches around 13.00 CET. As usual what ever the starting price for HJK will be it is always a subject to drop towards kick-off, but their latest home performance vs. TamU was said to be the best so far this season so they are obviously in form, KuPS should had lost vs. MIFK.

HJK -1.25 @ 1.92 available at the moment, they will probably rotate as much as possible and on paper the handicap and price look about all right, I am not taking it at least not yet and there is a slight chance the odds will rise because of KuPS standings in the table and HJK´s big CL fixture ahead. I took already TPS @ 1.80 on Sunday vs. Haka. They will rotate too because of European competition, but Haka has also run out of luck of lately and should be opposed.

MyPa and Honka are both in european competition and I do not want to guess who they are fielding, MIFK host Inter Turku and it is another difficult match to predict, but more about them later.