Kakkonen Pohjoinen 16.6

GBK - TP-47 O3.0 70% 1,70 9,5/10 188Bet
ORPa - FC YPA -1 2 64% 1,86 8/10 Sbobet
ORPa - FC YPA O3.25 63% 1,86 8/10 188Bet
PK-37 - VIFK -0,25 2 54,5% 2,31 4/10 Sbobet (can't resist these odds)

GBK - TP-47 42 20 38
o/u 2.5: 76 24

So yeah, not going to touch any 1x2 or handicap bets on this no matter what. GBK got thrashed by VIFK and while the performance wasn't that bad (the game was decided only in last 10 minutes) the results have continued to be awful for the last few weeks. If they were to wake up, they have more than enough quality in their squad to beat TP-47, as they're still basically the same team that finished in 2nd position twice in a row. However, that does come with a small disclaimer mostly because GBK has had some problems with injuries lately (preview gives almost zero information). TP-47 played a very even game against ORP, who are not as bad as I thought in preseason so I wouldn't worry too much about the draw. At minimum they are a middle-table team in quality so it wouldn't be that far-fetched to rate them as favorites since GBK has sucked so hard lately, thus if I were forced to play something then it would be TP-47 or nothing, but like said 1x2 feels like a lottery. Much better option would be the over. Both teams have been almost automatic when it comes to scoring at least three goals, in TP-47's case I'm still not sure why but as long as they keep it up I won't be argue against stats and match reports. As their form has dipped, GBK defense has broken down completely and even offensively challenged teams like ORP, VIFK and PK-37 have scored goals in bunches so it's very likely that TP-47 will be able to do some damage too. On the other side, Melarti (hopefully he plays), Carlsson and co will ensure that GBK has always a fairly good chance of scoring a goal or a two.

PK-37 - VIFK 28 24 48
o/u 2.5: 60 40

Two extremely boring teams so this just screams under and draw. VIFK is obviously the better team of these two, but PK-37 at home is never an easy task so I wouldn't bother with the away team even if the line were -0,25. Other than the TP-47 loss, VIFK has been quite consistent but the big amount of draws, which also happened last year, makes them a bit annoying when finding betting angles. And it doesn't help that they are definitely a top-half team which means that there won't be many opportunities to take them with a + handicap. PK-37 didn't convince at all against Tervarit, and if KPV has truly awakened now they could find themselves in some trouble later in the season. However, they do have plenty of recent experience from Kakkonen, so with their workmanlike and no-nonsense type of team and style of play, they very likely won't be anywhere near the main candidates for relegation. VIFK with nothing new on the injury front, PK-37 gets a KuPS loan in form of Ats Purje (Estonian international).

ORPa - FC YPA 14 15 71
o/u 2.5: 76 24

ORP misses their key player De Souza, YPA has a couple of injuries in their non-key player. ORP continued their good performances in TP-47 game last week, but I don't expect them to have many chances against YPA, who is just on a different level right now. Whether that means there will be an opportunity to play YPA looks doubtful at the moment when looking at the odds in eurobookies, though it will be interesting to see if the asians actually give an -1,5 line for an away favorite. Despite Rönkkö pulling miracle saves after another, ORP has still conceded quite regularly against good teams so YPA shouldn't have much trouble in scoring at least two. YPA defense has been so good, at least statistically, that it makes me a bit wary with over so 3.5 line wouldn't feel that appealing. However, ORP has almost always found the net in their games, and they've played threateningly enough lately to cause trouble for YPA's defense too.