Kakkonen Pohjoinen 19.6

TP-47 - PK-37 -0,75 56,5% 1,83 2/10 188Bet
TP-47 - PK-37 O3.25 59% 1,85 4,5/10 188Bet
FC YPA - GBK -1,25 1 71,5% 1,75 9/10 188Bet
KPV - ORPa O2.75 62% 1,92 7,5/10 Sbobet

TP-47 - PK-37 61 18 21
o/u 2.5: 73 27

TP-47 is playing quite well right now though it has to be said that their opponents have been quite light-weight or just out of form. Player situation looks stable enough for them, with the exception of RoPS loan players Forsman and Lahdenmäki being shuffled in and out. Both of them are not available as they played in RoPS' last game. PK-37 report says that they were unlucky to lose against VIFK, and unsurprisingly the VIFK report is almost the opposite so I guess it was a pretty even game then. In some ways there isn't a big difference between these teams as TP-47 is mid-table/upper mid-table team and PK-37 somewhere around lower half, ahead of KPV and Tervarit. However, TP-47 is playing much better right now, scoring goals for fun (though conceding too) against teams that aren't much worse than PK-37, so with hunch I really fancy TP-47's chances. PK-37 does deserve respect for hanging tough in Kakkonen despite their limited squad hence I wouldn't go any higher than -0,75 with the home team. TP-47 has continued their heavily over-like form while PK-37's defense has shown some improvement lately. Overall this looks like a match between a over team (TP-47) and an under team (PK-37), so I'd be somewhat cautious with the over, though PK-37 should not be as bad as VIFK when it comes to not scoring and conceding.


FC YPA - GBK 83 10 7
o/u 2.5: 78 22

In the opening round GBK was a clear favorite, but the teams have gone in completely opposite directions since then, so even if it feels really weird to think the home team as such huge favorites there's really nothing good going on for GBK that suggests they will get anything from YPA. YPA was miles ahead of any other team (including PS Kemi) that has visited Oulu when they dominated ORP last Sunday so them being in the top position doesn't really surprise anymore. GBK's defense was in shambles again as they gifted a handful of goals to TP-47, but even without the gifts they didn't really deserve to get anything from that game. Their form continues to be abysmal, though GBK being relegated still feels pretty unlikely to happen as there's just too much quality in the team compared to what the other bottom feeders possess. Melarti was subbed in in the last game, so other than Corcoran they have most of their key players available. YPA has no significant injuries outside Siira. It's interesting to see where the line will be set at, if there will be odds at all, but the choice will again be home team or nothing until GBK starts to show their potential (though I do have to admit betting against GBK feels like playing with fire, but like said they're really poor right now) . Assuming GBK's defense continues their antics YPA should just destroy them, though YPA defense did look just as good as the four conceded goals suggest so expecting one team to score four is still asking a lot. One small curiosity is the fact that half of the goals conceded by YPA were against GBK, and the fact is still that GBK has plenty of quality in offense and despite their poor form they've always scored at least one goal in every game.

KPV - ORPa 43 21 36
o/u 2.5: 68 32

Really tricky game with big relegation implications. I might have given too much credit for KPV's win against Kerho 07, but their team does look quite different now than what it was a month ago. In their last game KPV unveiled Tshibasu, who was a complete tourist in Ykkönen when playing with OPS but he was almost unstoppable against Kerho 07 which probably tells a lot about the difference between Ykkönen and Kakkonen. Now almost half of their team looks to have enough quality to play in Kakkonen so in that light the 5 points they've gathered so far is slightly misleading. ORP was totally outplayed by YPA, but if they didn't lose all of their confidence in that game they should provide a very stiff opposition for KPV. Before YPA game they played very even and equal matches, and the losses were in most cases not really deserved (such as VIFK, PK-37 and maybe PS Kemi). In any case, class difference should be quite minimal, ORPa is maybe slightly in better form but KPV does have potential to be better than what table shows so I can't really think ORP as clear favorites like Bet365 has the odds set at the moment. Total looks like it could go either way too. KPV especially has not been an offensive juggernaut, but the improved outlook of the team means that they should not be as hopeless offensively as they have been, and on the other hand they do have enough quality in their defense to not leak goals against the poor teams. ORP's Rönkkö is still in magnificent form and similarly to KPV their defense hasn't broken down that badly against other bottom teams. More than KPV, ORP has shown flashes of good offensive play so to sum up I'd be willing to try o3.0, but not anything higher than that. KPV's cb Kalliokoski is doubtful to play, ORP does not have any significant injuries.