Kakkonen Pohjoinen 24.6

PK-37 - KPV +0,75 2 60% 1,91 6/10 188Bet
GBK - Tervarit -1,25 1 69% 1,75 6/10 188Bet
GBK - Tervarit O3.25 63% 1,75 5/10 188Bet
PS Kemi - FC YPA +0,25 2 58% 1,85 4/10 188Bet
PS Kemi - FC YPA O3.0 67,5% 1,86 8/10 188Bet
ORPa - Kerho 07 -0,25 2 58% 1,91 5/10 188Bet
ORPa - Kerho 07 O3.0 62% 1,86 7,5/10 188Bet


PK-37 - KPV 46 22 32
o/u 2.5: 63 37

For once the bookies have managed to release odds more than 24 hours before the game so it makes previewing things a little bit easier. PK-37 still gets way too much credit for a team of their quality. Yes, they've been slightly unlucky in the last two games and are usually good at home, but at the moment KPV looks very much like a lower middle table, which is exactly what PK-37 is too. While it's of course somewhat risky to raise KPV in rankings based on just two excellent games, I think there's enough margin of error with the 1.70 level odds that are offered for PK-37, meaning that +0,75 for KPV would be more than acceptable. After a strangely high-scoring start to the season, PK-37's last few games have gone more in the way they are usually known, and that is inept offense combined with acceptable defense. Last week's PK-37 over selection was mostly due to their opponents, TP-47, who have been extremely over-like so far. As KPV's outlook is so different now it's slightly difficult to assess their totals. Their defense was pretty good against Kerho and ORP, but their offense has improved equally so as of now they're likely somewhere below the middle. 2.75 might be worth a try, but only as a cover to possible KPV handicap as neither of these teams really play the type of football suited for high scoring games.


GBK - Tervarit 81 11 8
o/u 2.5: 76 24

Losses have mounted for both teams lately so something has to give in here, unless the teams actually manage to play a draw which is an almost unknown concept in Kakkonen. Tervarit keeps fighting hard but with 1/3 of the season now played it's safe to say that they just don't have enough quality to stay in the group. And that goes for both the squad and coaching, given that ORP has managed to gather 10 points with equally poor players. YPA might have been looking ahead to their Kemi game, but according to the reports GBK played a really good game against them. If any of that carries on to this game, they should have a very good chance to beat Tervarit, and even if not, the class difference with these two is so big now considering that GBK is almost at full strength that anything other than a home win would be really surprising. Betting on a team in a six game losing streak naturally has some risks involved, so even if the odds look appealing it's a good idea to be cautious with the stakes. GBK's Corcoran returned in YPA game, important striker Melarti remained out. In VIFK match Tervarit missed couple of semi-important midfielders and Ogbuefi, who was a big loss. GBK has been a over team for a long time now, and while it has been the opponents that have done most of the scoring lately, Tervarit defending has been equally disastrous lately that GBK's offense should have a field day today. And likewise the GBK defense hasn't been in good shape either, so Tervarit scoring is certainly possible. However, the odds for the over look so small right now that it's unlikely anything big will come up in the Asian markets as 4 goals is still plenty to ask even for this level.


PS Kemi - FC YPA 38 20 42
o/u 2.5: 74 26

PS Kemi has rich traditions in fielding ineligible players, but this time they will certainly miss their suspended striker Eissele, who has scored absolutely ridiculous amount of goals (33 in 35 games) in the last two seasons. How it does affect them is probably impossible to estimate for everyone since he has practically played in every game since arriving in Kemi. Another huge blow would be missing Pasher, a really really fast winger, who is questionable to play according to Kemi preview. YPA should be at full strength. Standings don't lie as this is definitely a game between two of the best teams in the group right now. YPA has generally been the more impressive team, and with the injury news I'd say there's enough reasons to consider them as small favorites. But still, anything higher than that would be too much since Kemi is an excellent home tean and there's still lot of quality left in PS Kemi's team even if Pasher ends up missing this game along with Eissele (their replacements, Ions and Yun Lee would probably start in most teams in this group). There are some things speaking for under such as team news and both teams having really good defenses statistically. However, in Kakkonen the meetings between two top teams rarely end up low scoring and neither team did look unbreakable defensively in their recent Oulu visitations so I'm fairly confident we'll see goals today. Though it has to be said that this is a very different type of game than these two usually play since both teams are usually much better than their opponents, so estimating the total is a bit trickier than what it usually is.


ORPa - Kerho 07 28 20 52
o/u 2.5: 70 30

ORP has found getting points difficult lately but the more worrying thing is the fact that their performances have been so bad that the losses have been justified which hasn't been the case before. While some credit should be given to their opponents who are in top form right now, ORP sinking towards the bottom of the table is something that would not come as a big surprise as they've been the biggest overachiever so far. Kerho 07 is in equally disastrous form with four losses in a row, so in betting angles this is quite similar pick your poison type of scenario like in the GBK-Tervarit match. Kerho 07's performances have continued to vary wildly and as they did play a very tight game against PS Kemi they're probably going to really suck today if the pattern holds up. Equally miraculous to getting pregame odds a day before is Kerho 07's preview which this time actually says who are going to join them from their first team. Caumo was very impressive in the first few games, so he should help a lot. Other than Palosaari, all the others have played quite regularly in Kerho 07 so if the information is correct there should be no need for big adjustments. In a normal situation Kerho 07 would be around the middle table in terms of class, while ORP is near the bottom. Since both teams are playing almost equally bad right now the class difference is probably quite similar still, so -0,25 would be acceptable for Kerho 07, but anything higher than that is easily skippable.

I don't really get why the bookies think this game will be more under-like than PK-37-KPV, which after all does feature two of the lowest scoring teams from last year (some things have changed since 2012, but the general outlook is still the same for that match). With Kerho 07 I'm basing my opinion mostly on statistics and the one watched game, but at worst I'd say they are a middle level team when it comes to totals. ORPa does have some under-like qualities such as excellent goalkeeping and a very suspect striking squad. However, like the other Oulu team, ORP hasn't resorted to any Greece 2004 tactics and that really backfired in the last two home games, where both PS Kemi and YPA punished them hard. Now Kerho 07 is nowhere near of those two, but they do have enough quality upfront to make something happen. In terms of playing style I wouldn't classify either of these among VIFK and other boring teams such as PK-37, though it has to be said that sample size is really small as both teams are newly promoted so stats won't support much.