15.6.2013

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 15.6

A very rare sight, odds are available for Kemi home game. However, -2,5 and 3.75 are very much skippable, in eurobookies the over 3.5 is worth a small try. SJK odds were slashed, but before the line-ups appear they were of no interest anyway.

Kerho 07 - KPV O3.25 59% 2,07 7/10 188Bet

Kerho 07 - KPV 73 15 12
o/u 2.5: 73 27

As usual, Kerho 07 line-up remains a mystery. Stanislav Goldberg, an apt pupil of SJK school of fake tanning, is probably a lock since he wasn't on the line-up in SJK's game against JIPPO, but Caumo and Aalto were on the bench so it would be surprising to see them play just a day later (Joensuu is still quite far away). If the reports were accurate at all, Kerho 07 actually were the better team in the first half against YPA last week. In second half YPA showed why they are the best team of the group currently when they just overpowered Kerho 07 and scored three goals in the last 15 minutes. Overall the Kerho 07 performance seems to be have been much better than what they showed in TP-47 game, so assuming that the TP-47 game was just temporary mishap for them it's difficult to see KPV getting any points from them. KPV hasn't been playing catastrophically bad lately, and with the improved squad that they now have I'd expect them to have some say in who's getting relegated this year. Still, the losses continue to pile up so at this stage it would be just pouring units down the drain unless actual improvements happen in their results. Next couple of weeks see KPV play against ORP, Tervarit and PK-37, all of which look much more winnable than Kerho 07, so bettingwise there should be better opportunities to come with KPV than today's game. KPV is somewhat under-like, but against good teams and especially in away games they have consistently had at least three goals scored overall, so 3.0 line would be more than acceptable. The dreaded half-loss is always a real possibility with 3.25 like last week showed, but I'd be willing to try it again as I believe Kerho 07 is still a pretty over-like team, and the big class difference should slightly mitigate KPV's improved defense.


PS Kemi - Tervarit 86 9 5
o/u 2.5: 75 25

The current odds of around 1,10 for the home probably tell everything there is need to know about this match. PS Kemi easily defeated KPV last week and as their opposition today is of similar quality, it's difficult to envision anything other than a home win happening. PS Kemi should have almost a full squad available (one suspension), edit: which turned out to be a complete lie, as they do have plenty of players out, however, most of the big guns do play, so even if +2,5 is value I don't think I'm going to bother. Tervarit was very much in the game against PK-37, but I don't know whether that was just the weakness of PK-37 or have they actually started improving. In any case this is not the type of game where it would be wise to throw anything on the visitors because the class difference is so big, and it's not like this is a GBK type of situation where the better team is out of form. If the asians do not open this game, over 3.5 at odds of 1,90 look very tasty in eurobookies. For Tervarit last week's two goal game was mostly due to their opposition, but this game looks to be very much like the previous three matches before that (0-6, 1-3 and 2-5 losses) and I don't see PS Kemi having much trouble with scoring at least three goals. Kemi defense still remains suspect even though they finally managed to keep a clean sheet, so Tervarit scoring wouldn't be that surprising, but Kemi has enough quality (YPA is probably the best at the moment, but Kemi is right behind them) in their attack to go over the line themselves.

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