Kakkonen Pohjoinen 30.6

KPV - Tervarit -0,75 1 58% 1,84 4/10 Sbobet
PS Kemi - GBK O3.75 57% 1,97 5/10 Sbobet
PS Kemi - GBK -1,5 1 59,5% 1,99 6/10 Sbobet
ORP - VIFK U3.25 54% 1,91 2/10 188Bet
ORP - VIFK -1,25 2 55,5% 1,97 5/10 Sbobet

KPV - Tervarit 63 18 19
o/u 2.5: 67 33

After two dominating performances KPV got a bit lucky in Monday's PK-37 win. Some weeks ago this would have looked like a very tight match, but KPV's has fully overturned their season around so the home side is understandably a much bigger favorite now. However, the odds for the home win are so low at the moment that it's not really a comfortable thought to take KPV with a -0,75 handicap or higher because they are still a quite limited team. Tervarit almost grabbed their first win against GBK, but the usual late goal in Kakkonen was their downfall so the celebrations will come in some other time. Whether the close call was because of improving form of Tervarit or just GBK being even worse than expected is still a bit unclear, so any Tervarit selections are still far away. KPV doesn't seem to have any significant injuries, Tervarit did not have any substitutes on the bench in GBK game, but the situation isn't as bad as it looks. Most players, who could actually contribute something were on the field, and the missing players have played minimal minutes so the situation is actually quite stable. Like most games today, I'd lean towards the under with the total. GBK, PS Kemi, YPA and TP-47 are the clear over teams of the group, while PK-37 and VIFK are usually the opposites of those four. From the rest, ORP in their current form seems below average and Kerho 07 with their best squad should be above the middle. A lot depends on the matchups too, and in a match like this between two relatively poor teams the line should be 2.75 to make the over an interesting choice.


Kerho 07 - PK-37 54 20 26
o/u 2.5: 67 33

Kerho 07 looked really average against ORP on Monday, but even that was enough because their opponents are playing Kolmonen level football right now. Their recent losing streak did feature many of the quality teams so some of their poor form could be excused with. SJK injuries mean that Caumo, Goldberg and maybe others too, have been called up so they could look like a quite different team in this match. PK-37 has had some bad luck lately, but their overall record is still a pretty truthful assessment of their quality. Some guys are missing according to the forum talk, and of those Kivilä is probably the most significant. Even with a weakened squad Kerho 07 should still be a better team of these two, and in normal circumstances the 1,90 and so that is available would be more than enough. But as of now, until the lineups are known I'm not going to bother with this game. Kerho 07 without their SJK stars does still have some talent offensively, but overall this game too smells very under-like. In ORP match Kerho 07 was very efficient in finishing by scoring from almost every chance, and the game as a whole had very few opportunities in terms of goalscoring opportunities. In their recent games PK-37 has rediscovered their scoring touch, or more accurately the lack of it. Additionally, their defense has reverted to last year's form so the notion of this game turning into a one or two goal "thriller" would not surprise that much.

PS Kemi - GBK 78 12 10
o/u 2.5: 80 20

PS Kemi bowed to a superior opponent last round, but this should see a easy return to winning ways. Their key players are set to return for this match, though some semi important players such as Spivack and Ions are probably out. GBK's good performance against YPA was a distant memory in the Tervarit match, as their defense again gifted two goals to their opponents. Going against the form worked in ORP-Kerho match, but in hindsight the bet on GBK looks like a really really silly selection. GBK still seems to be a complete mess so until actual wins start to come they should remain a team to skip. GBK's player situation took a turn in the wrong direction when key striker Carlsson did not play against Tervarit, and as is often the case with a team in poor form there's no useful information available in the previews or match reports. Other than that, Melarti, Corcoran and others who have missed matches recently played in last game. Normally this would have been a quite equal match, but outside the first few matches GBK hasn't shown much to suggest that they'll get anything here. Also, PS Kemi hasn't suffered any noticeable lapses this season and at home they are usually really reliable and strong so even a -1,5 would not be that unappealing. Assuming no red cards come to ruin the day, this should be really high scoring game. GBK's defense has been very shaky for a long time now, and on the other hand GBK does have quality players upfront which is probably best evidenced by the fact that GBK has still scored in every match. PS Kemi is likewise blessed with offensive talent so the only thing speaking for under is Kemi's recent defense, which has improved considerably from start of the season. However, the odds for the over are really low and since it's never a good idea to force thing in betting it's at best a medium stake selection.


ORPa - VIFK 12 16 72
o/u 2.5: 62 38

Neither team seems to have any noticeable injuries or suspensions. ORPa looks totally lost at the moment so betting on them is not really an option as their performances have really started to match the quality of their squad. It may be hard to believe when looking at VIFK's squad list, but they are still very much in the hunt for a promotion. Just like the other two top teams, VIFK has been extremely consistent this year so despite what I wrote a few weeks ago, I'd be willing to give them a try even if the line was -1,25. Lately they have been dangerous enough offensively against teams of similar quality as ORP so expecting them to score more than a one goal should not be that much of a stretch anymore. However, this match does still have a very low scoring look. ORP offense has almost literally disappeared as they have not scored in three games and since VIFK is mostly known for their defense it's not an ideal situation for ORP. The bookmakers do know VIFK too, so the odds for under are really low even when there's a big difference in class, so I won't bother with the total with current odds, though I wouldn't against anyone if they'd decide to take the under here. Sadly for this match the best time for playing unders seems to be the beginning of season, when the Asian bookmakers often set 3.25 lines without any thought.