A review of KuPS – HJK at the blog, also a link to the league´s match report at the bottom of the article. The most interesting thing is the big move in odds just before the kick-off towards KuPS, HJK were priced around 2.25 at the time of the kick-off, that is a long way from Ladbrokes 1.70! Personally I can not fully reason why it happened, but they are quite common in Finnish football and also one of the biggest reasons why I have started the service in this form. If they happen so late it could just be a market adjustment and risk management by the bookies without any drama.
The result 0-5 makes an estimation of 48 % for an away win probably seem a bit funny, but though I was favouring KuPS more than most of the respected odds compilers I regularly talk to there was not that much difference, and the asian market finally had to react strongly to the pressure. In my mindset I had emphatized more the HJK weaknesses which were not exposed last night at Kuopio. I was expecting a lot of market action for this match, but to honest I had in mind that HJK odds would drop towards the kick-off!
Back to Lahti - Jaro now,
Venue
Hiihtostadion Lahti, a skiing stadion! Natural grass, in a surprisingly good condition.
Weather chilly, possbility of rain
TV coverage Urho TV. Streams?
Latest results of Lahti:Lahti - FC Hämeenlinna 3-0 f, Lahti – Haka 1-1 f, Lahti – KooTeePee 2-2 f
Latest results of Jaro: Jaro – JJK 0-1 lc, HJK – Jaro 1-3 lc, Jaro – PS Kemi 4-2 f
Last season Lahti 11th in the league with 31 (18/13 home/away) points, Jaro 10th with 32 points (18/12).
Latest mutual matches: 2009 Lahti won both league matches 0-1 and 2-1.
Program the following week:
25.4 KuPS - FC Lahti Veikkausliiga, TamU – Lahti Finnish Cup 21.4?
25.4 Jaro – Inter Veikkausliiga, 21.4 Spartak Kajaani – Jaro Finnish Cup
Injuries:
Lahti have a long list of long-term absentees, Haara, Moilanen and Huuhka, all center-backs, are out for a long time.
Jaro miss df Jani Sarajärvi, df Jari Sara, df Janne Vellamo, mf Daniel Fellman EDIT: Sebastian Mannström!
Doubtfuls:
Lahti centerbacks Hugo Miranda and Omar Yassin – licences, Yassin is stuck at the airport?
Jaro -
Both teams are expected to fight for survival. Jaro lost a lot of players after last season and seemed to be definitely going down this year, but late two players on loan from Ukrainian Metallist Harkov have made Jaro one of most interesting clubs of the season. The loaned players are Alexei Eremenko Jr - son of the current manager with the same name and a national team star and a known bad boy – and a mf/striker Venance Zézé from Ivory Coast. Lahti can still field the biggest Finnish football player ever Jari Litmanen, who despite his 39 years of age is a key figure when playing.
Club form and performances: Lahti did play the league cup in the group where all the big clubs were and nothing was expected from them. They managed to improve their play during the cup however and won HJK at home 4-1 in their last lc game. It was of no importance for both teams but yet an indicator that Lahti is not at an easy team to meet on their good day. In their last preparation match they faced Ykkönen side FC Hämeenlinna at home on natural grass and after a solid performance won 3-0. The new left defender Omar was impressive and new centerback Tennant McVea also did well.
Jaro reached the league cup semifinals but lost at home to JJK 0-1 after a sensational away win 1-3 at HJK.
Key factors: Lahti defense and goal-keepers. Even in the best case scenario it is new, in the worst case it is new, inexperienced, young and lightweight. Jaro have in fact similar problems in terms of quality in those departments, and the shortage of defensive players will show. Both teams have quality midfielders and strikers. Goals?
Under normal circumstances Lahti would be a bigger favourite but if Omar and Miranda are not available then the defense of Lahti is weak, and especially there is no one left on the bench to cover. Jaro have several weaknesses as well, and the market and media have reacted quite strongly to the comeback of Alexer Eremenko Jr, the rest of the team are not on his level and will face relegation battle for sure.
Market moves are likely also today, and just like yesterday they will go both directions. Can not promise that they change a lot just before kick-off, but if you are around it might be worth checking, or just use Betfair and ask for significantly better prices for both teams.
Good luck, enjoy your Saturday night. I have a couple of matches to go to. Asian handicap price limits below, do look for a value of at least 5 % for success in the long run.
| Lahti | Jaro | ||
| -0,5 | 2,63 | 1,61 | 0,5 |
| -0,25 | 2,22 | 1,82 | 0,25 |
| 0 | 1,92 | 2,09 | 0 |
| 0,25 | 1,71 | 2,41 | -0,25 |
Order your Newsletter now for accurate and early information on the matches and market moves from
puntteri@gmail.com. It is still free, for this round.
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