In the quarter-finals there were significant price changes in 3 out 4 matches, and all of them went wrong way. I have said it before and I say it again, the price moves in Asia are usually based on nothing, the people start reading the team news late and then start following each other blindly putting too much emphasis on the news which already have been estimated in the odds, therefore knowing the correct prices is essential for success. The one match not moving was VPS - Inter, there were so many players missing from the Inter roster that it kept punters away from backing the favourite. Early prices may be important to catch, but it is often more important to see where the odds finally go.
Honka - Inter
I could talk a long time about this match, but it feels like everything has been said already a couple of weeks ago in the reverse fixture of the group phase, when Honka travelled to Turku and gained a much needed point with a 0-0 draw. That game is not much of a use information-wise as Inter central defender Ari Nyman got sent out after 5 minutes of play which dictated the nature of the match. Both teams were without their best goal-scorers Timo Furuholm and Hermanni Vuorinen, and at least Furuholm will miss also this match and Nyman is suspended.
Nothing new. Inter have not lost vs. Honka in an official match since Job Dragtsma has taken charge, and despite the still worrying injury situation at Inter - at least Mika Mäkitalo has recovered and should play - and the "home advantage" of Honka it is difficult to see the home side as big favourites.
Honka are playing at home, but the match is taking place on a training ground which Honka themselves do not use that much, and there will be approximately 200 spectators watching the match and the home support is between nonexistent and lame. Inter are more experienced to play outdoors really than Honka who have a good indoor arena at their disposal. Too good for their own good as they tend to suffer in worse conditions.
Honka will control the game and last time with one man advantage they were also unlucky not to score, but there have been very few goals lately - Hermanni Vuorinen missing is a big blow and whether he is playing tomorrow will remain a mystery for some time. Even if he returns the estimations do not change that much. The head-to-head stats are showing a weird 1-7-5 after the latest low-scoring draw, but as mentioned the latest win for Honka was 2006.
In the quarter-finals Inter won VPS away 1-2 (-0,25) and Honka (-0,50) won the penalty shootout away at Oulu after 1-1 FT.
| Honka | Inter | ||
| -0,75 | 0,75 | ||
| -0,5 | 2,13 | 1,89 | 0,5 |
| -0,25 | 1,75 | 2,33 | 0,25 |
| 0 | 1,49 | 3,04 | 0 |
| 0,25 | -0,25 |
FF Jaro - JJK
These two also met in the group phase at Jyväskylä, both teams had their chances but had to settle for a 1-1 (1-1) draw which at that time was exactly what JJK were after. After that match Jaro have strengthened a lot in the form of an excellent striker Zézé who gives an option for Jaro with his speed and skill. Against HJK last week he did keep his rail on the right as agreed, and why not, with Eremenko Jr in the midfield Jaro can now use the whole dimensions of the football pitch as his long passes are both creative and accurate. Sebastian Mannström played again a good match at Helsinki and Jaro have a variety of weapons to attack at JJK.
It is not all rosy however. The goalkeeper Vitali Teles was very unconvincing and is definitely one of the weakest links, and the defending abilities of Jaro midfield are not the strongest with physically still out-of-form Eremenko Jr and Kronholm who is definitelely facing his limitations as a top flight footballer, the background at lower league football is a challenge indeed.
JJK have a new and experienced defense line compared to last season, but they survived the TPS attacks only with the help of lady luck and the midfield seems to be the problem at JJK. They have not yet found the right formation to do well either in the defence or in the offence, and the material at midfield is probably the weakest in the league.
Interesting match and the indoor home advantage is a big help for Jaro, but I am skeptical of how they are going to approach the match where they are supposedly the favourites. It was easier vs HJK who had almost a reserve side on the pitch, but were also taking the initiative and let Jaro sit back and enjoy the counters through Eremenko Jr.
Jaro are slightly the favourites here and there should be goals as well, but I do not want to get over-excited over Jaro´s success lately, they are very vulnerable and the material is thin. Funnily, some people have already changed their mind of Jaro from being certainly the biggest relegation candidate to a team capable of top-6 position. The new signings are important and quality players, but they are no miracle makers.
FF Jaro surprised everyone by winning away at HJK 1-3, (hc was +1!) while JJK (+0,50) won TPS with penalties after a 2-2 draw.
FF Jaro surprised everyone by winning away at HJK 1-3, (hc was +1!) while JJK (+0,50) won TPS with penalties after a 2-2 draw.
| FF Jaro | JJK | ||
| -0,75 | 0,75 | ||
| -0,5 | 2,38 | 1,72 | 0,5 |
| -0,25 | 1,96 | 2,04 | 0,25 |
| 0 | 1,67 | 2,5 | 0 |
| 0,25 | -0,25 |
The prices are probably not going to change as much this time than last week in the quarter-finals, but the market have surprised me several times and it is better to keep an eye on what is happening, especially during the last two hours before kick-off.No update through mail regarding these matches, I will update the blog if there is anything really worth mentioning. Final on Saturday in Helsinki at 14.00 CET and I will talk about on Friday. The league starts Friday next week with KuPS - HJK on tv.
Have a nice day!
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