Kakkonen Pohjoinen 7.7

TP-47 - PS Kemi O3.25 64% 1,97 9/10 Sbobet
GBK - KPV O3.25 61% 1,87 8/10 Sbobet
PK-37 - FC YPA O3.25 57% 1,92 5/10 Sbobet

TP-47 - PS Kemi 28 19 53
o/u 2.5: 77 23

A really fierce derby, or at least for this level. TP-47 has only picked one point from their last two games, but that was understandable as their opponents were much tougher than what they faced earlier. PS Kemi bounced back easily from their YPA defeat as they annihilated GBK at home. I'd say the standings are quite accurate for this game, though now that I think the table is surprisingly close to what most people were predicting in the preseason. There's only a one step difference in class if you want to think it that way, but the difference between the top teams and the teams underneath them is quite big, so even in an away game PS Kemi should be a quite big favorite. However, at away I don't trust them enough to make the -0,5 worthwhile, so unless -0,25 is available I'll skip the handicap. TP-47's is very vague about any injuries, but the players that are sure to be out should not affect them much. PS Kemi misses their first choice goalkeeper Vilmunen and regular starter Spivack, with Vilmunen being the important one. Both teams are very over-like so 3.25 would be more than welcome, 3.5 would be enough too but just for small stakes. TP-47 has been quite low scoring, but I'd attribute that to their opponents (VIFK with the late goals and PK-37) and the red card in YPA game, which obviously changes things. Before that they were consistently scoring and conceding at a very high rate. PS Kemi's Eissele and Pasher are in ridiculous form right now and though Kemi does not play the same way as YPA, they're almost as high-scoring as YPA just because of the sheer amount of talent in the team.

GBK - KPV 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 75 25

If Finland were a country where people followed football, GBK's coach Lomski would have been chased off weeks ago, but as it stands nobody really cares so it took this long to actually fire him. Their new coach is one of their players, a choice that probably makes more sense financially than anything. KPV continued their winning ways against Tervarit and if we just look at the recent form KPV could actually be considered a big favorite. However, I'm maybe too involved so the idea feels just too outrageous because GBK's squad is still considerably better than KPV's even when KPV's new signings are taken into account. Anyway, the new coach for GBK and the derby aspect are probably good enough reasons for skipping the handicap in this game. Hilariously enough GBK's David Carlsson was on vacation for the last few games, so if he has returned they should finally have almost their best squad available. KPV's injury situation is unknown, but assuming nothing has happened during the week they should also be free of injuries. Goals look a good choice for this game too, GBK's new coach is one of their defenders but I doubt they can fix their terrible defense this quickly, so KPV scoring two goals should not surprise much. GBK scoring streak continued against Kemi and despite the great form of KPV they haven't been totally invulnerable with their defense so GBK should have quite good chance to score again.

PK-37 - FC YPA 15 16 69
o/u 2.5: 72 28

PK-37's last 4 games have went much better for them than what the measly 1 point that they have picked up might suggest. YPA was equally unlucky against TP-47 when they gave up a late equalizer. The fact that they were undermanned for most of the game and still dominated TP-47 tells a lot about their quality so PK-37 will have tough time getting anything from them. However, PK-37 is still a step above ORP and Tervarit so the 1,35 that is currently offered would not be acceptable even under normal circumstances. In addition to Savic, who was sent-off, YPA will miss extremely important Maluka, and while they do have adequate replacements available something like -1,25 would not be appealing. Interestingly they did play without Maluka in the first meeting (he was subbed in in the 2nd half) but despite that PK-37 was destroyed completely during the first hour. I've lowered the total estimation considerably, but this still looks like a more over-like contest than the average. For a team like PK-37, who are slow and unskillful, YPA's style of play is likely to cause a lot of trouble again. The same cautious approach is probably sensible for the total too, so I wouldn't bother with a 3.5 line.