Kakkonen Pohjoinen 4.7

VIFK - Kerho 07 O2.75 62% 1,82 5/10 Sbobet
Tervarit - ORP +0,25 1 56% 2,00 4/10 Sbobet
VIFK - Kerho 07 -1 1 57,5% 1,76 1,5/10 Sbobet (late start, so no extra bets)

VIFK - Kerho 07 68 17 15
o/u 2.5: 66 34

ORP was closer to slimming the lead to 1-2 until the last 10 minutes than VIFK was to widen it, but overall there wasn't any doubt that the visitors were going to win the game. VIFK has had some fortunate bounces go their way and I still don't believe that they're going to be ahead YPA and PS Kemi when the season's over, but today's game should not pose that much trouble for them. After playing very good in the first five matches or so, Kerho 07 has really come down to earth lately. Last week they were even outplayed by PK-37 of all teams, so if no improvement happens you wouldn't expect them to get anything from VIFK. However, Kerho 07 is still couple of steps above the worst teams, meaning somewhere around the middle depending on their line-up, so I personally wouldn't be interested in VIFK -1,25 or anything higher than that. VIFK will probably be able to play with pretty much their best squad, and as usual, Kerho 07 loan players are shrouded in mystery. If the current odds hold up, the total line could be 2.75. VIFK is still an under team for me, but their recent visitations here have been encouraging enough that the idea of playing an over for their game is not that outrageous anymore. Kerho 07's match against ORP was very under-like, while the PK-37 game was the total opposite of that so the results can be misleading sometimes. But anyway, Kerho 07's situation should still be the same, as in middle of the pack when it comes to totals.


Tervarit - ORPa 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 69 31

A rather easy match to predict in the sense that both teams are playing equally awful right now and thus neither has earned the right to consider them as favorites. If you wanted to nitpick then ORP might get a slight nod, just because they haven't been blown out as often as Tervarit. Bookies have managed to price ORP as relatively clear favorites when truthfully there should be nothing separating these two in terms of class despite the points difference in the table. However, does that mean Tervarit would be an excellent bet? My answer would be not really, since we're still dealing with teams that are playing some terrible football at the moment, so the idea of putting anything on either of them is not appealing at all. ORP misses their first-choice goalkeeper Rönkkö, which is a big blow for them. Worth of note is also the departure of De Souza, who was quite good in the first month. Tervarit will probably have at least half a dozen missing players, which in itself is nothing new, but Ogbuefi being suspended is going to hurt them a lot (more than Rönkkö for ORP). Total is quite tough to predict, both teams have been mostly conceding goals for the last month, so who knows whether it's the poor offenses or the defenses that win in this type of match. Tervarit does not do much good with a draw so some urgency is to be expected from them, the team news also favor the over but even 3.0 line would be a very small bet. In any case, I'd prefer to leave the total for live betting since the opportunity is there to see how the match starts and develops.