Kakkonen Pohjoinen 21.7

Lots of odds movement for some reason, a possible bet on KPV but that game is not interesting anyway so I'll wait for the line-ups.

PK-37 - PS Kemi -0,5 2 66% 6/10 188Bet
PK-37 - PS Kemi O3.0 64,5% 1,80 7/10 188Bet
ORP - GBK -0,5 2 70% 1,88 9/10 188Bet (-0,75 66,5% at Sbobet, was expecting -1 so that would be 9/10 too)
ORP - GBK O3.0 64,5% 1,80 7/10 188Bet

KPV - TP-47 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 69 31

KPV should have their best squad available, TP-47 got two guys sent off last time but they're not the most indispensable players. RoPS help is possible, likely to be Forsman and/or Lahdenmäki, who've usually helped quite a bit. After going on a long winning streak, KPV has now lost two in a row. Both losses have however been quite unlucky, and the opponents were really tough so KPV has nothing to be ashamed of. Drawing with Tervarit is inexcusable for a team of TP-47's caliber, and while their performances have been acceptable, I'm not that high on a team that hasn't won in a long time. On the other hand, Kemi, YPA and VIFK is a tough streak of games to go through, and before that TP-47 was remarkably consistent in their ability to not lose against teams outside those three. Really tough to say whether either of these has earned the right to call themselves a favorite so I'll settle for the middle option. TP-47 has been better when looking at the long-term performances while KPV has maybe played slightly better recently, player quality is probably quite equal but TP-47 does have the edge in coaching. KPV should still be somewhere along the middle in totals, TP-47 has been extremely low-scoring lately after they were completely opposite of that in the first 1/3 of the season and as the information about TP-47 is still very scarce (still a few rounds until they come here) I'll likely take a pass with the total bets here.

PK-37 - PS Kemi 17 17 66
o/u 2.5: 72 28

PK-37's Lähderinne returns from suspension, PS Kemi's preview talks of two starters being out (no names mentioned, who could've guessed), Torvic and Tervarit transfer Ogbuefi being back will help them quite a bit. PK-37's good run came to an end against GBK who completely outplayed them. PS Kemi is at least on the same level as GBK but it would be silly to base your estimation on just one game so obviously PK-37 is not totally without chances here. PK-37 has usually been quite good at home, and PS Kemi's away performances have still been quite suspect even though they've managed to win a few games. However, that's mostly just nitpicking since PS Kemi has still won almost all of their games, and even the losses have had plenty of things go against them. The class difference is big enough to make -1 for the visitors interesting, as PK-37 is still a middle table team at best and PS Kemi is on top of the ranking along with YPA. PK-37's games against good offensive teams have usually ended in goalfests and it's not difficult to see PS Kemi's speedy strikers having a field day against PK-37's slow defense. I'll still be a bit cautious as I've been burned multiple times with PS Kemi's low scoring away games, so 3.25 would not be that interesting.


ORPa - GBK 14 16 70
o/u 2.5: 72 28

In case anyone actually reads these they should be quite familiar with the situation here. Since they've played so poorly lately, ORP does not bother with writing previews but I'd assume all the "key" players will be available meaning that Rönkkö will return from his suspension. GBK's Melarti will likely still miss this game. ORP is still hanging in the relegation battle mostly because they managed to win a couple of games against Tervarit and KPV, otherwise they haven't been competitive against other teams if the first few games are not taken in account. GBK was terrible in the first two months but after they sacked their coach they've now won three games in a row. In simple terms this is a game between a team very likely to get relegated and a team that is probably just as good as VIFK despite their poor position in the table. Fatigue could be the only thing going against GBK as this is their third game in a week, but other than that it's difficult to see anything other than an away win. GBK's record is pretty self-explanatory, they've practically always went over the 2.5 line and o3.5 has happened almost as often. ORP offense remains very weak despite last week's two goals, so the improved GBK defense could prove too hard to crack. Rönkkö's return will help ORP but GBK is scoring at will right now against better teams than ORP so he'd need to pull more than a few miracle saves to keep the score respectable.