FC YPA - PS Kemi O2.75 71% 1,81 10/10 Sbobet (O3.0 67 %)
FC YPA - PS Kemi 44 20 36
o/u 2.5: 74 26
To say that both teams struggled a lot last weekend would be an understatement of the week, or how does it sound to have to come back in an away game from 2-0 down with a very depleted squad or having to survive this in the last minute? The fact that YPA and Kemi both won is probably a good example why they're placed 1st and 2nd as lesser teams would have likely crumbled to a draw in those kind of circumstances. With current European odds I'd be tempted to put something on PS Kemi, but knowing the line-ups would be quite important before making any decisions. PS Kemi missed plenty of regular starters from PK-37 match, including their first choice gk Vilmunen, Ions, midfield enforcer Pätsi and Pasher (8 goals and many assists too). YPA does get their important defender Morrison-Derbyshire back, but topscorer Pejic is suspended. Also, two regular starters from defense, Pakola and Colovic, are questionable. Normally these two teams would be quite equal and I'd say the team news favour PS Kemi slightly assuming the forum rumours are true that they'll get most of those missing players back, so +0,5 would be acceptable for a small bet.
Due to the volatile nature of Kakkonen odds and the low limits for most people, it's probably quite silly to make any staking suggestions, but I'll say it anyway: from 2005 to 2013 practically all the profits have come from 1x2 and handicap bets, and the total selections have been the very definition of fun bets with just tiny amount of profit. This game looks to be very high-scoring both statistically and in terms of playing style. YPA and PS Kemi have the best offenses in the league if not in the whole Kakkonen and while the defenses have been just as good statistically the recent (defensive) form has not been as good for either team as it was a month ago. Pejic is a big blow for YPA, but they do have plenty of offensive talent available as the possible missing players are all defenders. YPA-VIFK was another entertaining top clash and this game going the same way wouldn't even surprise Juha Mieto.
AC Oulu-OPS
Not really confident with recommending anything for Ykkönen, but with current odds OPS +0.5 and U2.5 are the only possible choices. AC Oulu has been almost JIPPO-like after gk Monsalve replaced Lindolm and it's not really a coincidence since the defense has been much improved, and on the other hand, Mäkelä being injured and Adeyinka flopping have ensured that the normally entertaining offense depends too much on Heikkilä. Ojala is still a quite good prospect, but expecting him to score consistently is not fair, and he does usually play at midfield anyway. Verronen and Sohlo have either got minimal playing or have not impressed that much to expect them to provide any significant offensive output, and don't even start with Haanpää. I'd attribute OPS' recent good form mostly on their opponents as both PK-35 and SJK are in disaster mode right now. Though I didn't see the PK-35 match, the SJK win had plenty of luck involved in it. Now that Ngambe^2 is gone, the strength of OPS lies even more clearly in their defense. Gk Koponen, Gurzeda, Jibrin and Räisänen are all elite players in Ykkönen and the full/wing backs can hold their own at this level. OPS offense relies heavily on set pieces of Ramires and giving, or more accurately hoofing, the ball to Stewart, who is likely one of the fastest players in Ykkönen. Nepotism, homegrown rule and expensive Finnish players mean that there is plenty of dead weight upfront in OPS. Juntunen, Autti, Elijah Christopher, Kemppainen, Peci, Huovinen & co are useless for this level, and in comparison they make even AC Oulu's rotation players look threatening.
If AC Oulu were playing with their best squad and were in good form I'd say -0,5 would be justified. However, for the lack of better word ACO's games have been very sluggish in Monsalve era, in fact almost every match including the JIPPO game could have easily ended in draw - outside those 4 games which actually were draws. OPS knows how to defend (and they'll almost certainly do it today), and the same thing could be said for AC Oulu too recently, and I don't think the class difference is as big as the odds suggest. Also, the recent meetings between these two have been very cautious, uneventful and boring (even in Finland there are some matches you don't want to lose), so unless either team drastically changes their approach I don't see there being many goals scored in this.
Torture your ears with the AC Oulu goal song:
Ei kommentteja:
Lähetä kommentti